Donald Trump pulls ahead of Kamala Harris in major poll — a sign her campaign is fizzling

For the first time in weeks, former President Donald Trump pulled ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in one of the most-watched national polls — raising the prospect that her momentum has fizzlied out just ahead of their debate.

Trump edged out Harris 48% to 47% among likely voters nationally, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.

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Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Kamala Harris for the first time in weeks, according to a new poll. AP

The poll mirrors the surveys from late July when Trump led Harris among likely voters just after President Biden dropped out of the race. Other polls have similarly begun to show the 45th president regaining ground against his rival weeks after the Democratic National Convention wrapped up.

Trump’s renewed razor-thin lead comes despite the fact that 70% of voters and 37% of those backing him felt that the 45th president had uttered something they found offensive.

Harris had surged in the polls across the board after getting jolted to the top of the ticket and captured the lead over Trump in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling. She also gained ground in the battleground state polls, which still remain largely a tossup.

On the issues, voters trust Harris more than Trump on abortion (54% to 49%) and democracy (50% to 45%), but trust the 45th president more on the economy (55% to 42%) and immigration (53% to 43%), the New York Times/Siena College poll found.

Top issues for voters were the economy (21%), abortion (14%), immigration (12%), inflation and the cost of living (7%) as well as democracy (7%).

Democrats enjoy a slight lead over Republicans on enthusiasm — 91% to 85%, per the poll.

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The poll suggests that Harris’ momentum is weakening ahead of Tuesday’s debate REUTERS

Moreover, most of the poll respondents — 56% — said they do not believe Harris represents a change from the unpopular Biden administration. Just 25% said Harris represents major change and 15% said she would be a minor change. That’s relative to 51% who felt that Trump represents major change, 10% who indicted minor change and 35% more of the same.

Political strategists including James Carville have said whomever can position themselves as the changemaker candidate is best positioned to emerge victorious. To that end, Carville recently suggested in an op-ed that she needs to break from Biden publicly on major policy.

Additionally, Trump’s approval ratings appear to have ticked down slightly with 46% viewing him as either very favorably (27%) or somewhat favorably (19%), compared to 52% who see him as somewhat unfavorably (10%) or very unfavorably (42%).

That’s down from 48% who viewed favorably back in July.

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The debate will have the potential to dramatically shakeup what appears to be a tossup race for the presidency, with about eight weeks to go until Nov. 5.  AP

Notably, Harris’ favorability trailed Trump’s — 45% viewed her favorably, with just 24% having very favorable views of her. About half of poll respondents viewed her unfavorably, with 37% saying their views of her were very unfavorable.

Back in July, she scored 46% favorable to 49% unfavorable.

see also Donald Trump and Kamala Harris debate prep strategies revealed: Here’s how each candidate is gearing up for their ultimate showdown

“Highest-rated pollster in the country and a large sample size, too. Fortunately for Harris she has the debate this week and none of this will matter if she has a good night,” election data guru Nate Silver mused on X about the recent poll.

Silver’s 2024 election forecast gives Trump higher odds of winning the Electoral College relative to Harris, though she is favored to win the popular vote.

Republicans haven’t won the popular vote for president since 2004. Trump had been roundly besting Biden in popular vote polls before the incumbent dropped out on July 21.

Harris still retains the advantage in the RCP aggregate of polling nationally, with a 1.4 percentage point edge over Trump in a head-to-head matchup.

The New York Times/Siena College poll sampled 1,695 voters from Sept. 3–6 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

Shortly after Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris, Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio sent out a memo predicting that the vice president would enjoy a “honeymoon” in the polls.

Harris has consistently maintained that she is the “underdog” in the race and that she is taking nothing for granted. Her campaign has touted momentum, including her topping Trump in the fundraising cricut with a  $361 million haul in August against Trump’s $130 million across their campaigns and aligned committees.

Trump and Harris are slated to square off in the Tuesday debate hosted by ABC News in Philadelphia, which will mark the first time the two will have ever crossed paths in person.

The debate will have the potential to dramatically shakeup what appears to be a tossup race for the presidency, with about eight weeks to go until Nov. 5.