7 NFL Stars Who Could Retire Earlier Than Expected
Thanks to surgical innovations, advances in health and fitness programs and rules that have made the game safer, we’ve become accustomed to seeing longer NFL tenures.
However, the league could soon be entering a new era when players don’t feel the need to extend their careers. Some will inevitably still chase championships and records, but others will walk away much sooner than expected.
There are many reasons for players to end their careers while still capable of performing at a high level. Injuries were behind Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement in 2019. And when Aaron Donald retired 10 seasons into a Hall of Fame career this offseason, he noted that his “passion” to play had subsided.
Players are also earning more in a shorter amount of time. Due to a rising salary cap, bigger contracts and the introduction of NIL money—not to mention an evolving media landscape that has provided a plethora of post-playing opportunities—many will be able to prioritize health and lifestyle over extended earnings potential, as players such as Donald, Jason Kelce, Darren Waller and Steven Nelson did this offseason.
With that in mind, let’s examine seven current NFL stars who could retire sooner than most expect and why.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow entered the NFL in 2020 as, arguably, the most-hyped QB prospect since Luck.
Like Luck, though, Burrow’s career has already been plagued by injuries.
He has been to two AFC title games and one Super Bowl in four seasons, which makes the idea of him having a short career seem odd. Yet, he’s also finished two of his four seasons on injured reserve.
Burrow’s rookie campaign was ended by a torn ACL, and his 2023 season was ended by a wrist injury that required surgery.
The 27-year-old recently conceded his latest injury has made him question his NFL longevity.
“Whenever the injuries start to stack up, your football mortality kind of comes into the back of your mind,” Burrow told reporters.
The LSU product will turn 28 in December. He’s been sacked 148 times in the regular season and another 28 times in the playoffs. The Bengals have taken steps to improve his protection—like signing Orland Brown Jr. in 2023 and drafting Amarius Mims in April—but if the punishment continues to add up, it’s easy to think that the signal-caller would consider retiring early.
After all, Burrow has already earned $76.2 million in his career and has $219 million guaranteed on his current contract.
Cincinnati has been a perennial contender when Burrow has been healthy, and as long as that doesn’t change, he’ll probably give little thought to retirement. Yet, team struggles or another significant injury could quickly have him considering his post-playing options.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
In many ways, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes still feels like the new face of the NFL. Yet, he’ll turn 30 early in the 2025 season and could well be closer to the end of his career than the beginning.
That might seem ludicrous, given Kansas City’s status as a perennial Super Bowl favorite. Since he became a full-time starter in 2018, he has never missed an AFC title game, he’s won three Super Bowls, and his career hasn’t been substantially impacted by injuries.
The 28-year-old is chasing Tom Brady in the record books but has also said he isn’t sold on having the lengthy career the NFL icon did.
“I would love to play that long,” Mahomes told Time‘s Sean Gregory. “At the same time, I want to be there for my daughter. If I can do that, I’ll continue to play. But if I feel like it’s taking away from my family time, that’s when I’ll know it’s time to go.”
Mahomes has already earned $136.3 million and has shown himself to be a marketable star off the field with multiple endorsement deals. He has also accomplished enough that he’d be a Hall of Famer if he retired today.
Time appears to be on his side if he’s looking to match or surpass Brady’s seven Super Bowl wins, but the same can’t be said for other key Chiefs contributors like Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. At some point, Kansas City may not be the superteam it currently is.
And if at that point, catching Brady no longer seems realistic, Mahomes could move on to enjoy family life unexpectedly.
When the New York Giants used the second overall pick in the 2018 draft on running back Saquon Barkley, it felt like he was sure to be an NFL star for the next decade-plus.
Yet, six seasons into his career, the two-time Pro Bowler may already be approaching the end.
There are several reasons for this, most notably, his injury history. The 27-year-old has endured a variety of injuries—including a 2020 ACL tear—as a pro and has played 14 or fewer games in four of his six campaigns.
Barkley’s draft status, playing on the franchise tag in 2023 and finally getting his free-agent payday from the Philadelphia Eagles this offseason are also factors here.
The Penn State product has already earned $48.7 million in his career, which is a substantial sum for a running back. His three-year, $37.8 million deal with Philadelphia is essentially a two-year deal because the Eagles can release him with a post-June 1 designation in 2026 and save $5.2 million in cap space against an $8.8 million dead-cap hit.
If Barkley is released in two years, he’ll be 29 when he hits the market. That’s an age that isn’t particularly conducive to earning big on the open market. Yes, Derrick Henry (30) and Aaron Jones (29) signed fairly lucrative deals in free agency this offseason, but they are outliers.
Barkley probably won’t be eyeing a high-value, long-term deal whenever his current contract ends. At that point, he may simply have no interest in signing a one- or two-year deal just to continue playing, especially if injuries remain a big part of his career.
T.J. Watt, Edge, Pittsburgh Steelers
A four-time first-team All-Pro, one-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year and six-time Pro Bowler, Pittsburgh Steelers pass-rusher T.J. Watt is unquestionably one of the faces of the NFL today.
Coming off of his third campaign as the NFL sacks leader, he has shown few signs of slowing down. However, the 29-year-old recently admitted that playing well into his 30s isn’t a certainty.
His brother, J.J. Watt, spent 12 seasons in the NFL which might be longer than T.J. wants to play.
“I don’t know if I want to play forever, but who knows? It is too hard to say,” he said, per The Athletic’s Mark Kaboly. “J.J. always said he didn’t want to play super long, then things happened and he ended up playing longer.”
Watt is already a strong Hall of Fame candidate and has earned $89.9 million thus far. His desire to play past 30 may hinge largely on his chances of capping his career with a championship.
“For me, it is all about no playoff wins,” Watt said. “I am trying to do anything I can do.”
The Steelers have a good chance to give the Wisconsin product his first career playoff victory this season. They had a playoff team in 2023 and should see improved quarterback play after swapping out Kenny Pickett for Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.
However, nothing is guaranteed, and Wilson and Fields are both set to be free agents in 2025. If they don’t deliver, Pittsburgh could be back to the drawing board at quarterback in 2025—and the 2025 QB class appears questionable at best.
If Pittsburgh doesn’t appear to be on a championship path in the next year or two, Watt may consider following his brother into the media world.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson is, arguably, the best receiver in the NFL, is only 25 years old and just signed a four-year, $140 million extension with the Minnesota Vikings. He appears set to be leading highlight reels for years to come.
However, he may ultimately choose to do it for fewer years than most expect. This has a lot to do with both his newest contract and the developing dynamic created by the receiver market and the draft.
Jefferson’s deal makes him the highest-paid non-quarterback in the history of the NFL, in terms of annual salary, at least. It includes $110 million in guarantees. Receiver contracts aren’t going to go down any time soon.
However, there could come a point in the near future when teams aren’t eager to pay high-end receivers top-of-the-market money. This is because the draft continues to churn out NFL-ready superstars.
Receivers could be treated as running backs currently are, with teams looking to keep them for a year or two past their rookie deals at most, then swapping them out for younger, cheaper alternatives.
It may already be happening to a degree, which would explain why receivers such as CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk and Amari Cooper are awaiting extensions in contract years.
For Jefferson, it could happen as soon as 2028, when the Vikings could release him and save $40 million in cap space against a $7.4 million dead-cap hit. He will be on the cusp of turning 30 then, and he may be well past his earnings prime.
A lot will likely hinge on how things play out for the LSU product and the Vikings over the next few seasons. If he’s still barrelling toward the Hall of Fame and/or J.J. McCarthy has Minnesota in the Super Bowl picture, Jefferson will likely want to keep playing.
If neither of those things happens, though, Jefferson could walk away with well over $120 million in career earnings instead of trying to stretch his career.
The thought of him retiring before before his contract is up may seem outlandish less than a month after he put pen to paper, but it isn’t.
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
This year’s top draft choice and Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is poised to be the new face of the NFL for the foreseeable future, right? Well, possibly.
There’s no denying his high profile, even though he has yet to take an NFL snap. He was largely viewed as a can’t-miss prospect after being the most prolific player in college football for the past few years.
There’s also a question over the goals Williams has set for himself at the next level. According to Sam Schube of GQ Sports, he is looking to win eight Super Bowls.
“Tom Brady has seven,” Williams said, per Schube. “So you got to set the bar high.”
By all accounts, the 22-year-old wants to be an NFL great. As long as he’s on that path, there’s little reason to think he’ll walk away from football prematurely. He’s worth mentioning, though, because he’s entering the NFL with the financial leverage no player before him has ever enjoyed.
According to The Athletic’s Kalyn Kahler, Williams made around $10 million in college from NIL money and endorsement deals. He hasn’t signed his rookie contract yet, but he’s set to earn $39.5 million over his first four seasons, according to Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune.
With the fifth-year option and future endorsements considered—Williams has already established himself as a brand—he may earn well over $100 million by the end of his rookie contract and at age 27.
In theory, this means the USC product could have the financial freedom to simply walk away if he isn’t happy with Chicago’s direction, his NFL future or the rigors of being a pro quarterback. That feels unlikely, of course. With quarterback contracts probably being worth $60-70 million annually by the time he’s due for an extension.
Yet, it highlights the power that college and NFL stars are likely to wield in the coming years. At some point, a player is going to say “no thanks” to a specific team, either as a contract-eligible veteran or as a highly coveted draft prospect.
It may not be Williams, but the NFL’s newest star is helping to usher in a new era in which players have more control of their earnings potential—and how long they choose to play—than ever before.
