Which recent first-place finishers could be dethroned?
Every year, the NFL standings are a showcase of the league’s parity. History tells us that at least a handful of playoff spots will change hands, regardless of the prior year’s results. The same can be said of the NFL’s eight divisions; in 2023, for example, half of them had different champions than the season before.
So who’s best suited to keep their division title in 2024? And who’s most likely to lose it? Here’s our rundown of the most vulnerable reigning champions, from sturdiest to shakiest:
8. Kansas City Chiefs (AFC West)
2023 record: 11-6 | Division title streak: 8 seasons
The last time someone other than the Chiefs claimed the West, Alex Smith was K.C.’s team MVP, Eric Berry was Comeback Player of the Year, and Peyton Manning was the Denver Broncos‘ quarterback. There have been many renditions of the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes squad since then: the historic big-play powerhouse, the suffocating defensive juggernaut, etc. No matter how you slice it, the Chiefs reign supreme, and that should continue into 2024, with Mahomes boasting additional downfield receiving depth and Steve Spagnuolo’s physical defense largely intact. Denver has a rookie signal-caller with Sean Payton still implementing his designs, the Las Vegas Raiders are still without a bona fide quarterback of their own, and while the Los Angeles Chargers should be more disciplined under Jim Harbaugh, they’re relying on lots of new pieces around Justin Herbert.
7. San Francisco 49ers
2023 record: 12-5 | Division title streak: 2 seasons
Three years after the Los Angeles Rams won the Super Bowl, their rival 49ers have established themselves as one of the safest bets atop the league. Kyle Shanahan’s offense was esteemed even before Brock Purdy’s ascent, yet the young signal-caller has elevated the entire setup with back-to-back MVP-level outings. Throw in elite weaponry and a tough defense that may have gotten even better up front thanks to low-cost free-agent additions, and it’s hard not to envision a third straight West crown for the reigning NFC champions. The Arizona Cardinals are still in the early stages of their rebuild, the Seattle Seahawks are adjusting to a new coach in Mike Macdonald, and while the Rams rekindled offensive juice in 2023, they’re still dependent on the health of aging Matthew Stafford at quarterback.
6. Houston Texans
2023 record: 10-7 | Division title streak: 1 season
The improbably explosive debut of quarterback C.J. Stroud and new coach DeMeco Ryans has quickly vaulted the Texans into the Super Bowl conversation — so aggressively, in fact, we might soon be bordering on overhype for Houston in a division that saw the rival Jacksonville Jaguars advance in the playoffs just two seasons ago. But their play-makers are legit, and Ryans’ defense should be more imposing after a spendy free agency. The Jags, meanwhile, have struggled to turn raw talent into reliable results, with the flashy but mercurial Trevor Lawrence enduring somewhat of a wide-receiver makeover this offseason. The Tennessee Titans are much improved around Will Levis but remain something of a wild card. And the Indianapolis Colts are putting a lot on Anthony Richardson, who’s played all of four NFL games.
5. Detroit Lions (NFC North)
2023 record: 12-5 | Division title streak: 1 season
The fact the Lions are unmistakable favorites speaks to the progress overseen by the Dan Campbell-Brad Holmes regime, which patiently built around Jared Goff to the point the ex-Rams castoff once again registers as a reliable, borderline top-10 starter. The balance of their roster is enviable, with a dynamic backfield and explosive No. 1 receiver, not to mention a defense infused with fresh secondary talent. Why, then, aren’t they slam dunks to repeat atop the North? Every team in this quartet has reason to believe they’ll be better! The Green Bay Packers may have an MVP-type gunslinger in Jordan Love. The Minnesota Vikings are giving rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy elite skill weapons and a Brian Flores-led defense. And even the Chicago Bears, with No. 1 pick Caleb Williams, have an upgraded offensive infrastructure.
4. Baltimore Ravens (AFC North)
2023 record: 13-4 | Division title streak: 1 season
There’s a case to be made the Ravens are one of maybe five teams with the total package of elite offense and defense to challenge for a Lombardi in 2024: Reigning MVP Lamar Jackson now has Derrick Henry as a workhorse complement in the backfield, and the stingy defense still has physical studs at every level. But like the NFC North, this division is chock-full of potential wire-to-wire competition. The Cincinnati Bengals should be right back in the title conversation provided Joe Burrow stays upright behind a bolstered offensive line. The Pittsburgh Steelers, who refuse to bottom out, at least have multiple options at quarterback to go with the trademark tough “D” deployed by Mike Tomlin. And the Cleveland Browns may hinge on Deshaun Watson’s revival, but they have an upgraded insurance plan and scrappy defense.
3. Buffalo Bills (AFC East)
2023 record: 11-6 | Division title streak: 4 seasons
Besides the Chiefs, no team has held their division title longer. Which has to count for something, even though plenty were up in arms this offseason when the Bills stripped down Josh Allen’s receiving corps, not so unlike K.C. once did around Mahomes. The reality is, as long as Allen is present at full strength, Buffalo is going to be a tough out. We might also be discounting Dalton Kincaid as a top outlet for their offense. Even so, the competition could be stiff. The New York Jets are putting all their eggs in the Aaron Rodgers basket once again, but if the 40-year-old former MVP can actually stay on the field, they’ve got all-star talent on both sides to make a real run. The Miami Dolphins have cold-weather, big-game hurdles to clear, but their track speed remains dangerous. And the rebuilding New England Patriots might be slightly better with Jerod Mayo in charge.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC South)
2023 record: 9-8 | Division title streak: 3 seasons
Believe it or not, the Bucs have the third-longest division-title streak in the NFL. Adding to their prospects, the South is still relatively weak, and they secured basically every core piece of their surprisingly scrappy 2023 run, Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans and Antoine Winfield Jr. included. On the other hand, did they truly improve as opposed to simply opt to “run it back”? The Atlanta Falcons don’t project as world-beaters, but with a steadier hand under center in Kirk Cousins, their young weapons and now-Raheem Morris-led defense could quickly challenge for the throne. The New Orleans Saints, who refuse to rebuild, are always liable to hang around thanks to Dennis Allen’s defense. And the Carolina Panthers frankly can’t be much worse than they were in 2023, with Dave Canales now running the show.
1. Dallas Cowboys (NFC East)
2023 record: 13-4 | Division title streak: 1 season
Wait, really? The Cowboys, who have some of the game’s top play-makers on both sides of the ball, are the most likely to lose their division crown? The Cowboys who’ve won 12 games in three straight seasons? Look, if Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons propel Dallas to another playoff run, no one will be surprised. But this is a team that’s consistently struggled to get over the hump, a team that could end up applying added pressure to Prescott in a contract year, and also did precious little to actually improve the roster this offseason. The rival Philadelphia Eagles, meanwhile, are coming off a historic collapse but still tout all-world talent, plus a new play-caller that could spark a leap back into title contention. The New York Giants are still rebuilding, but the Washington Commanders could also have more juice with ex-Cowboys assistant Dan Quinn inheriting a dynamic young signal-caller in Jayden Daniels. The biggest cause for concern in Dallas: The NFC East hasn’t had a repeat champion since the 2001-2004 Eagles. This quartet is simply destined for turnover up top.
